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MAJORITY WATCH: EVIDENCE IN 30 HOTLY CONTESTED DISTRICTS SHOWS CONTROL OF THE HOUSE REMAINS TOO CLOSE TO CALL

WASHINGTON - Sept. 6, 2006 - The first release of data from Majority Watch, a poll of over 30,000 American voters, shows that control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm elections remains a tossup. Majority Watch looked at 30 of the most hotly contested races in the nation and determined that Democrats currently hold the advantage and momentum, but Republicans could maintain control of the House.

RT Strategies Inc., Constituent Dynamics LLC and Waggener Edstrom Worldwide Inc. today released the first of three pre-election tracking polls that examines voter preferences for candidates in 30 seats for the U.S. House of Representatives. The poll was conducted Aug. 27-30, 2006 and surveyed 30,000 likely voters, with representative samples of 1,000 voters in each of the 30 strategic and highly contested races.

Of the 30 districts that were polled, 25 seats are currently held by Republicans and five are held by Democrats. These districts were identified by RT Strategies based on analysis and reports from the leading elections analysts in the U.S.: Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg, the Hotline, and RealClearPolitics.

"The race is extremely close in these 30 districts, but the Democrats have the momentum right now," said Thom Riehle, partner at RT Strategies and lead developer of the poll. "Over the next two months, Majority Watch will focus on these 25 Republican-held seats and five Democrat-held seats as a key to understanding which way the House will go. As it stands now, there are 18 Republican seats that are either leaning Democrat or just flat-footed ties. With 15 the magic number for taking back the House, this ball is in play in a big way."

Initial Results
Results from the first round of polling indicate the following:

  • Control of the House is largely held in the hands of Caucasian Americans. In all these swing districts, the power of white voters in these races is magnified. Based on the demographic modeling for each district surveyed, across the 30,000 interviews, 94 percent of those surveyed were white, 3 percent were Hispanic (mostly in New Mexico's 1st District) and 3 percent were African-American.
  • The president's job approval rating is having a big effect. Overall, across all 30 districts, 38 percent of those surveyed approve and 55 percent disapprove of President Bush's job performance. This clearly may affect the Republicans' ability to hold these contested seats.
  • Both parties need to shore up swing voters. Since at the present time the two parties are holding their bases, each needs to shore up weak supporters, half of whom are not members of their party and most of whom are women.
  • The party identification of those truly undecided breaks down as follows:
    • Forty-one percent are Democrats.
    • Thirty-five percent are Republicans.
    • Twenty-four percent are independent or other.
    • The majority are male.
  • Few races are beyond the margin of error: Only 10 of the 30 races show one side ahead beyond the margin of error: five Republicans are solidly ahead and five Republicans are solidly behind.
  • Seventeen races are still in play. Of the 30 districts polled, 17 races are still in play. Of all these seats, currently held by Republicans, the standings are as follows:
    • Two Republicans remain marginally ahead.
    • Five Republicans are marginally behind.
    • Five Republicans are significantly behind in the polls.
    • Five races are too close to call.

"Control of the House will be determined by individual races, not a generic national ballot," said Bill Broadhead, partner at Constituent Dynamics. "The only way to accurately predict control of the House is by individually examining competitive districts. That's what makes this project unique."

"The key finding in our Majority Watch poll is that there are 17 seats that could go either way. We need to pay particular attention to these races in the months ahead; as they go, so goes the House," said Torod Neptune, senior vice president and U.S. public affairs practice leader for Waggener Edstrom Worldwide.

Polling was conducted via Constituent Dynamics' Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology, based on RT Strategies' demographic models of likely voters in each of the 30 districts. Full poll results for each district are posted at http://www.constituentdynamics.com.

The next release of Majority Watch will occur at the end of September.

RT Strategies (http://www.rtstrategies.com/index.htm), a bipartisan polling firm in Washington, D.C., and Constituent Dynamics (http://www.constituentdynamics.com), a nonpartisan Seattle-based research organization specializing in Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) polling, have paired together and formed a partnership for the Majority Watch project with the Waggener Edstrom Worldwide Public Affairs practice (http://www.waggeneredstrom.com), which positions clients and increases outreach around the globe.

About Waggener Edstrom Worldwide

Waggener Edstrom Worldwide provides public relations services using its Innovation CommunicationsSM methodology optimized for global organizations impacted by innovation and change. The agency's approach facilitates the acceptance of new ideas and helps clients tell the stories that alter the way people think, act and buy around the world. Founded in 1983, the agency has more than 650 employees with U.S. headquarters in Seattle, European headquarters in London and Asian headquarters in Hong Kong. Waggener Edstrom Worldwide partners with pioneering and creative clients, including Affymetrix, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), MasterCard International, Microsoft Corp. and T-Mobile USA. More information may be found at http://www.WaggenerEdstrom.com.

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For more information, press only:
Tonya Klause, Waggener Edstrom Worldwide, (202) 326-0785, tonyak@waggeneredstrom.com



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